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Script
of the IPPNW-lecture „Time Bomb
Nuclear Energy – 20 Years after Chernobyl“
by
Dr.
Ute Watermann,
International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW),
23.03.2006
On the 26th
of April 2006, the reactor catastrophe of Chernobyl
will see its twentieth anniversary. The International Atomic Energy
Agency
(IAEA) is well prepared for the event. Together with the WHO and other
UN
Agencies, they will be presenting the “official study” on the
consequences of Chernobyl.
The
preliminary results are already known: just under 50 dead, 4,000
curable cases
of thyroid cancer, and prognostically shorter life spans for only 4,000
people
because of the incident. Further consequences: none. For the IAEA the Chernobyl case
is closed.
The
people,
the physicians and the scientist from the region speak of a different
reality
but nobody listens. For: 20 years after the Chernobyl catastrophe, nuclear energy
is
experiencing a second coming. In Germany, the prolonging of
nuclear
power plant runtime is discussed anew. The decision to phase out of
nuclear
energy is thus called into question. New nuclear facilities are being
planned
in Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia, and Africa.
Although there are currently only 22 facilities under construction, the
plans
of the advocates of nuclear energy and the nuclear industry are
immense. In the
next years, China
alone will probably invest in 30 new nuclear power plants.
The
civil
use of nuclear technology also leads to an increase of the nuclear
threat. The
crisis around Iran
shows, just how closely civil and military options are intertwined:
Possessing
the technology for peaceful use means that one also has the necessary
technical
ability to build a nuclear bomb.
With
this background,
the question about the consequences of Chernobyl
is a decisive one. 20 years after the catastrophe, we will try to
undertake a
careful analyses of the situation.
For
your
information: The lecture is divided into three parts. Part one deals
with the
power plant catastrophe in 1986, part two deals with the repercussions
of
radioactive radiation and the third part describes the health effects
of
radiation. The lecture will last for about one hour. Following that
will be
room for discussion.
***
Chernobyl –
that was the greatest industrial catastrophe in the
history of mankind.
On the
left
you can see the still smoking reactor and on the right the exploded
reactor
twelve, hours after the catastrophe.
What
led to
the catastrophe on the 26th of April 1986? In Chernobyl,
this small place in northeastern Ukraine,
near the border to Belarus
and Russia?
***
The
historians
can’t really agree. What is certain is that on the 26th of
April at
1:23 am, a test of the cooling water system was started in block IV of
the Chernobyl
nuclear power
plant. As a result of different human failures, it came to an unplanned
increas
in the reactor output. The operator noticed the increase and ordered an
emergency shut down 40 seconds later. The shut down failed, the reactor
got out
of control and exploded eight seconds later. The 1,000 metric ton heavy
reactor
vessel lid was lifted up and the tubing ruptured. Air got in and caused
the
gases to ignite. The reactor began to burn and of the approximately 140
tons of
core fuel, it is estimated that 8 tons escaped.
On the
28th
of April at 9:00 pm, two days after the catastrophe, the Soviet news
agency
TASS reported about an accident in the Chernobyl
nuclear power plant and that humans were harmed. One day later, on the
29th
of April, the news about this MCA (maximum credible accident) in Chernobyl is
aired on
German news broadcasts for the first time.
***
Three
kilometers away lay the town of Pripjat.
At the time of the meltdown, 45,000 people, among them 16,000 children,
lived in
the town. They enjoyed the 26th of April as the first warm
Sunday in
spring – and were not warned.
Not
until
one day later, 36 hours later to be exact, the residents of the power
plant
residential estate of Pripjat were evacuated. Further safety measures,
like the
intake of iodine tablets or the relocation to safe rooms were not taken.
In the
next
ten days, 76 villages were evacuated. The evacuation of the total
population in
a perimeter of 30 kilometers around the reactor lasted until the 5th
of May. Altogether 130,000 people are evacuated. The area was declared
a
restricted zone. Until today, access is only possible with a permit.
The
governmental control of milk and drinking water began on the 1st
of
May. On the 23rd, iodine preparations, which prevent the
thyroid gland
from absorbing radioactive iodine, were dispensed. Much too late. In
order for
the iodine prophylaxis to take effect, it would have to be taken before
the
radioactive cloud reached the people.
***
Here
you can
see the picture of an abandoned Kindergarten in Pripjat. The residents,
who
were evacuated on the 27th of April 1986, never saw their
homes
again.
***
While
informing and evacuating the people proceeded slowly, the efforts to
extinguish
the fire proceeded under high pressure. At first, 600 men of the
plant’s fire
brigade tried to stop the fire. In the following month, they were
assisted by
up to 860,000 young men from the former Soviet
Union,
the so called “Liquidators”, who were conscripted for the cleanup
efforts.
These
young
men were sent onto the roof of the burning reactor, without appropriate
protective
clothing, to extinguish the fire with bare hands and clear up the
havoc. Until
the 5th of May, more than 30 military helicopters threw
4,200 tons
of lead and sand over the reactor in order to extinguish the inferno.
The fire
and radioactive emissions weren’t under control until the 6th
of
May.
Now
began
the construction of the so called sarcophagus of concrete, which
encases the
destroyed reactor today. The sarcophagus was completed on the 15th
of November, 1986. Parallel to that, the Liquidators tried to clean up
the
surrounding area from radioactive particles.
***
Here
you can
see a soldiers standing at an entrance to the restricted zone.
***
Here
is
another picture inside the restricted zone.
***
And
another
picture inside the restricted zone with an abandoned house.
***
During
and
after the explosion in the Chernobyl
nuclear power plant, the radioactive equivalent of 100 nuclear bombs
was
released. What does that mean for human beings and the environment?
Lets first
look, where Chernobyl
is located.
***
The Chernobyl nuclear power plant lies in northern Ukraine in the border region with Belarus and Russia.
Through the fire in the
reactor, the radioactive contents were blown into the air and created a
radioactive cloud that crept over a wide area.
A
perimeter
of 30 kilometers around the reactor was declared a restricted zone.
Beyond that,
further parts of the three affected countries were radioactively
contaminated:
30 percent of the territory of Belarus, 7 percent of Ukraine and 1.6
percent of
European Russia. In total, 162,000 square kilometers were contaminated.
Because
of
the alternating wind and rain patterns it could occur that one village
was
highly contaminated while an adjacent village in the same region was
not.
***
Alternating
wind patterns dispersed the radioactive cloud over Europe. On the 26th
of April the wind was blowing towards the northwest, on the 27th
towards the west, later towards the northeast and on the 28th
of
April towards the south. Thus many European countries were affected by
the
radioactive cloud: among others the Baltic states, Scandinavia, Poland,
Germany, Switzerland, France and England, but also Italy, Rumania and
Greece.
In
Germany
following regions were mainly contaminated: southeastern Bavaria,
Baden-Württemberg, Hamburg and Berlin.
Fortunately,
the area around Chernobyl was sparsely populated. In Germany, or other
western
European countries with high population densities, a similar nuclear
meltdown
would have had even more devastating consequences. If for example, a
meltdown
would occur in the Biblis-B reactor in the Rhein-Main region, leading,
as in
Chernobyl, to an area of 10,000 square kilometers being declared
uninhabitable,
several million people in Germany would have to leave their homes
permanently.
Under such conditions, an orderly evacuation would be impossible. Whole
cities
and factories would have to be abandoned, causing people to loose the
basis of their
existence.
But
also the
area of Chernobyl was not completely uninhabited. Nine million people
lived in
the radioactively affected area at the time of the accident. 400.000
people had
to be resettled, 451 villages evacuated and buried with soil.
***
For
many
people, this represented a downright break with their life up to that
point.
Here you can see an elderly couple which was resettled from their
village to an
apartment block in Minsk.
***
During
the
explosion of Chernobyl, more than 40 different fission products were
released.
For an appraisal of the consequences, the following four elements are
of
interest: iodine 131, cesium 137, strontium 90 and plutonium 239.
Iodine
131
has a half-life of only eight days. (Half-life: the time it takes
for the
number of atoms in a nuclide to be reduced by half through radioactive
decay.)
Radioactive
iodine is most hazardous to health during the first weeks after the
accident.
Iodine 131 is stored in the thyroid gland where it can lead to thyroid
cancer
in a few years and can cause other dysfunctions of the thyroid gland.
(For
information in
case of inquiry: Iodine 131 is an artificial isotope of iodine. It’s a
beta and
gamma emitter with 0.2-0.36 and 0.6-0.72 MeV respectively.)
Cesium
137
on the other hand has a half-life of 30 years. It was dispersed in
great
quantities. Cesium is absorbed in the gastrointestinal tract and is
deposited
in muscles, testicles, kidneys, liver, bones and blood. Cesium 137 is
considered a catalyst for cancer, but can also be the cause of a lot of
other
diseases. The radiologist Juri Bandascheswki of Belarus, for example,
detected
high concentrations of Cesium 137 in the myocardial muscle of children
who
suffered a heart attack.
(For
information in
case of inquiry: Cesium 137 is a beta and gamma emitter with 0.66 MeV.)
Cesium
137
is absorbed by the human body through the food chain. Cesium stays for
decades
in the upper levels of the soil, where plants have their roots. Through
the
plants, the nuclides enter animals which are then consumed by humans.
Forrest
soil
is especially contaminated because radioactive particles adhere easily
to
needles, foliage, and roots. That’s why until today, it is recommended
to
abstain from consuming wild animals, mushrooms and berries from the
contaminated
regions – which also include the parts of Bavaria which were reached by
the
radioactive cloud.
But
it’s not
just the soil which is affected. Many nuclides were washed out of the
soil by
rain and entered the subterranean aquifers and rivers. Exceedingly high
is the contamination
of ground silt in stagnant water bodies, which in turn are frequented
by the
populace for private fishing.
Strontium
90
has a half-life of 28 years. Strontium, like Calcium, enters the human
body via
plant and animal products and is mainly deposited in teeth and bones.
New blood
is formed in the bone marrow. Strontium is considered a catalyst of
leukemia.
Strontium
is
much more mobile and soluble in water than Cesium. Directly after the
accident,
Strontium was found in the ground around Chernobyl. Today, experts
assume that
80 percent of the Strontium has already entered the food cycle.
(For
information in
case of inquiry. Strontium is a beta emitter.)
During
the
accident, Plutonium 239 was also released. Plutonium 239 has an
extremely high
half-life of up to 24,000 years.
Scientists
are especially concerned about Plutonium transforming to Americium.
Americium
can reach the deeper soil layers in a very short time. Once there, it
represents a hazard for subterranean
water reservoirs for centuries. (half-life of Americium: 433 years)
(For
information in
case of inquiry. Plutonium is an alpha emitter.)
Except
for Iodine,
all other above mentioned radioactive elements enter the human body
through the
food chain. The exposure of the people around Chernobyl is therefore
different
from that of the victims of the atomic bombs attack on Hiroshima and
Nagasaki.
In
Hiroshima
and Nagasaki, people were exposed to high doses within a very short
time. In
Chernobyl on the other hand, the bulk of people involved have been
exposed to
low doses of radioactive radiation over a long period of time.
***
Here
you can
see a picture of a peasant woman selling contaminated berries. For many
people
in the region, such free provisions are a traditional and essential
part of
their diet. Although there are places to measure the degree of
contamination,
they aren’t used much because people cannot afford other food anyway.
In
total,
more than half of the food in the region is produced locally by people
who grow
their own vegetables and offer it at the local markets. The radioactive
contamination of these privately grown crops is ten times higher than
that of
kolkhoz produce.
The
reason
is that kolkhozes apply Potassium and Calcium fertilizer which saturate
the
mineral needs of the plants and in turn cause them to absorb less
radioactive
substances. However, several kolkhozes lie directly near the Death
Zone. The
region used to be the most fertile area of Belarus, described as a
granary from
which, until today, crops are exported into the whole country.
***
How
does
radioactivity affect the body?
The
effects
of high doses of radiation, meaning upwards of 0.5 sievert, is pretty
well
known from the experiences with the victims of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Acute is
the outbreak of the so called radiation disease with following symptoms:
-
Within
hours to
days, the immune system is shut down and infections start to show,
-
the
blood count
changes, and uncontrollable bleedings occurs,
-
the
gastrointestinal
tract is affected and the person has to vomit,
-
other
internal
organs, such as the central nervous system, are also harmed.
From a
doses
of 1 to 2 Sv, a fifth of the affected die, at 7 Sv the rate of survival
is zero.
Unlike
these
acute effects due to high doses of radiation, long-term damage such as
tumors often
only appear after decades.
According
to
official, non revisable information, 134 power plant employees and
firefighters
of Chernobyl were exposed to high doses in the range of 0.7 to 13
sievert. 31
died from acute radiation disease. At least 30.000 people absorbed a
dosis of
more than 0.5 sievert. Today, many of them are sick or already dead.
The
great
bulk of the population was and still is affected by low dose radiation
– which
means, as shown above, by low dose radioactive nuclides which they take
in with
their diet.
***
It is
beyond
dispute that even a small dose of radiation can cause cancer. This
happens in
the following way: radionuclides like Cesium 137 are unstable
particles. They
disintegrate inside the body, releasing energy. If this energy or
radiation
hits a cell, it causes the creation of other unstable particles – so
called
free radicals. These free radicals can cause damage to the DNA, meaning
the
genetic makeup, and thus lead to the outbreak of cancer.
What
is
disputable on the other hand is how often this occurs and if there are
other
diseases caused by low chronic doses of radiation. The scientists of
the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and many radiologists who
cooperate
with the agency claim that the consequences of low dosie radiation are
irrelevant.
But
since
then end of the 1990s we can see a paradigm shift in the scientific
community.
There is an increase in scientific studies which allude to the alarming
consequences of low radiation exposure. Molecular biologists report
that the
effects of low radiation on the genetic makeup are not apparent at
first but
manifest themselves after multiple cell divisions and are thus
transfused to
the following generations. This is what they call “genomic instability”.
Scientists
reported in the journal “Nature” that children of parents who live on
radioactive
contaminated ground exhibit mutations in their genetic makeup, namely
in the
micro-satellite genome. The rate of increase of the mutation is
directly
related to the dose of radiation.
The
Belarusian
geneticist Lazjuk discovered an increase in the rate of malformations,
proportional to the radioactive contamination of the soil in Belarus.
And
the
Russian biochemist Burlakova asserted that the antioxidant system of
the cell –
which protects it from aging – is susceptible to damage by low dose
radiation.
Overall,
because of the long latency period until the outbreak of a cancer,
scientists
postulate that the consequences of Chernobyl are not yet foreseeable at
all.
***
But in
spite
of these studies, a year-long dispute about the consequences of
Chernobyl has
been raging between the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and
the World
Health Organization (WHO) on the one side and the physicians,
scientists,
people and government authorities of the region on the other.
To
start
with: Let’s compare the figures.
In
September
of 2005, the IAEA and the WHO released the draft of a study by the UN
Chernobyl
Forum. The figures of this study are to be announced officially on the
20th
anniversary.
The
most important
of these figures include:
-
Less
than 50 deaths
until mid-2005
-
Approximately
4,000
cases of thyroid cancer, mainly in children and adolescents; thereof 9
fatalities.
The rate of survival lies at 99 percent if western therapy norms were
applied
-
No
proof for an
increase in miscarriages and sterility or leukemia and other forms of
cancer in
relation to the reactor accident
-
In
total, the
number of future fatalities as a consequence of the accident could
possibly
reach a maximum of 4,000 people.
-
The
Chernobyl case
is closed: poverty, unhealthy living conditions and mental diseases
pose a much
greater problem than the radioactive contamination.
But
other
statistics also exist:
The
government authorities of the three affected states present the number
of 25,000
deaths in the group of young Liquidators. Other authorities even
register 50,000
dead Liquidators.
The
Ukrainian Embassy announced in Spring of 2005 that today, 94 percent of
the Liquidators
are sick.
According
to
the Ukrainian agency “Tschernobyl Interinforum”, 84 percent of the 3
million
people who were exposed to radioactivity in the Ukraine are sick (weak
cardiovascular system, diseases of the respiratory tract, adenoids, and
digestive organs).
For
the next
30 to 50 years, the WHO calculates with 50,000 cases of thyroid cancer
in children
who, at the time of the disaster, were between 0 and 4 years old. The
Otto-Hug
Radiation Institute in Munich forecasts 100.000 cases in all age groups.
Who is
right? Let’s take a look at the separate disease groups.
Firstly
the
affection of the thyroid gland:
Shortly
after the accident, senior Russian and also German scientists declared
that radioactive
iodine does not lead to thyroid gland affections. In 1991, the same
scientists,
together with the IAEA, claimed that “the data does not point to a
clear increase
in the cases of thyroid cancer since the accident”.
Belarusian
physicians reported in 1990 a large number of thyroid alterations in
children.
Professor
Edmund Lengfelder from the Otto-Hug Radiation Institute, who operates a
thyroid
clinic in Gomel, Belarus, also reported in 1990 of a thirty-fold
increase in
cases of thyroid cancer in children. These figures have also been
confirmed in
other studies.
***
Here
you see
a chart of the newly occurred cases of thyroid cancer in children,
adolescents
and adults in Belarus. You can observe that children were affected
first – and
very shortly after the reactor disaster (light purple bars). This shows
the
particular sensitivity of the children’s thyroid glands to radiation.
The
children
became adolescents. Here you can see the increase in thyroid cancer
under young
persons (dark purple bars).
The
WHO made
a prognosis for the strongly radiated region around Gomel, stating that
50.000
persons who were children at the time of the reactor disaster would
suffer from
thyroid cancer in the future.
But
the
adults would also increasingly be affected. You can see the increase on
the
yellow bars. Overall, the sum of additional cases of thyroid cancer in
Belarus
alone adds up to 10.000 cases.
***
Here
you can
see a picture from the Otto-Hug thyroid clinic in Gomel. Until 2002,
70.000
patients received extensive thyroid treatment at this clinic alone. For
many
children and adolescents, this means the removal of their thyroid
glands and
the lifelong dependence on medication and medical supervision.
Thyroid
cancer can in fact be treated in most cases, but only under Western
medical
standards, which cannot be taken for granted in the region. In many
cases, the
only hope lies with private donations from the West. Nobody cares for
the
mental effects of cancer on the affected children.
***
Thyroid
cancer is a very rare form of cancer – under normal circumstances it
constitutes less than one percent of all cancer forms. That’s also why
this
increase is so remarkable.
For
the
whole population as for risk groups – for example the Liquidators – it
is also
important to note the increase of inherent tumors such as breast
cancer, intestinal
cancer, cancer of the bladder, lung cancer and gastric cancer.
Professor Alexei
Okeanov from Minsk analyzed the data of 95.000 clean-up workers: the
cancer
rate was 20 percent higher compared to a control group that was only
slightly
affected.
The
cancer
rates increase with the rate of contamination in the soil: In the most
heavily
affected region of Belarus, in Gomel, the rate rose up to 55.9 percent.
One can
also observe a doubling of the rate of breast cancer in regions with
notably
high Cesium contamination. On average, women developed breast cancer 15
years
earlier than usual - a similar phenomenon as with thyroid cancer.
The
risk of leukemia
in children in the affected regions is also three times higher than
usual.
***
Yuri
Orlov, a
neurosurgeon in Kiev, registered a six-fold increase in brain tumors in
infants
(0-3 years old).
But in
spite
of all these studies: In an individual case of cancer, it cannot be
proven that
the cause was the exposure to radiation.
Here
you can
see a picture of 37 year old Michael Stankewitsch. He wears a baseball
cap so that
the long scar on the back of his head won’t be seen immediately. Two
months ago,
he underwent brain surgery to remove a tumor and now undergoes ongoing
radiation
treatment. “Of course the thought occurs to me that Chernobyl is to
blame for
that”, says the gaunt man while padding haltingly across the hospital
hall of
the cancer clinic in Gomel.
When
the
great cloud came, Stankewitsch was a student at a vocational school in
Choiniki, a town, which until today, is considered heavily
contaminated. The
school’s headmaster sent Stankewitsch’s class to help near the reactor
for
three days: The young people were supposed to assist the evacuees.
***
But
the
health consequences are not restricted to the Chernobyl region. Surveys
in
several European countries showed a significant increase in infant
mortality in
the year 1987 – probably as a result of a “Cesium-effect” – and in the
beginning of the 1990s probably as a result of a “Strontium-effect”. It
would
take too much time to go into detail on these effects at this point.
For the
record, studies come to the conclusion that fatalities under infants in
Europe
related to Chernobyl are in the magnitude of 5,000. Because of
different
reasons, the actual effects could be much higher.
Numerous
studies also document a significant increase in malformations in many
European
countries. According to a German survey, 1,000 to 3,000 additional
cases of
malformation were registered in the contaminated region of Bavaria
alone. IPPNW
scientists estimate a Europe-wide number of malformations of at least
10,000.
***
How
exposure
to radiation leads to other, so called non-cancer diseases is only
partly
understood at this point. Further research efforts are urgently needed.
The
data from the region, especially on the clean-up workers and children,
are
disconcerting, however.
To
cite an
example, research showed that the Liquidators suffer under an increase
of 22
percent in fatal cardiovascular affection compared to a control group.
Furthermore,
they suffer from a heavy increase in inflammable gastrointestinal
diseases and
ailments of the nervous system such as chronic fatigue syndrome,
depression,
schizophrenia, amnesia, and dizziness. The attending physicians
identify, among
others, circulatory disorder as well as cerebral alterations, detected
by MRI,
as possible causes. The multitude of eye diseases – from cataracts to
macula
degeneration and chronic conjunctivitis – of which 95 percent of the
clean-up
workers suffer are also believed to be caused by the circulatory
disorder due
to radiation exposure. Other scientists discovered premature cell
ageing due to
a dysfunction of the antioxidant system in the liquidators cells.
Children
are
also strongly affected. In 1996 in Ukraine, 70 percent of the children
of
afflicted parents were officially registered as sick. In comparison: in
1987,
the figure was 20 percent. Children in the region of Gomel in Belarus
are also
very sick. From 100,000 children, 83,000 suffer from respiratory
diseases, 7,000
from diseases of the nervous system and sensory organs, 7,000 from skin
diseases and subcutaneous adipose tissue diseases, and 5.500 from
diseases of the
gastrointestinal tract. In total, the number of infant illnesses
diagnosed for
the first time rose by a factor of thirteen.
***
Taking
all
these scientific studies und surveys from the region in consideration,
IPPNW,
together with the Society for Radiation Protection, have prepared their
own
meta-analysis in which they merge the studies of previous years and
undertake a
very conservative estimate. You can obtain this analysis from the IPPNW
central
office in Berlin.
These
are
the results:
Until
today,
several hundred thousand liquidators have become sick.
Several
ten
thousand liquidators have died as a result of radiation exposure.
Until
today,
10,000 cases of thyroid cancer have occurred in Belarus alone.
In
total,
there must be far more than of 10,000 cases.
In the
future, more than 50,000 children will suffer from thyroid cancer.
Several
independent
studies show an accumulation of other types of solid cancer as well as
leukemia
in the populace. What is missing in order to get tangible figures for
the whole
population is an overview study. Independent researchers must be
allowed access
to the cancer register.
There
appear
to be about 10,000 additional cases of serious malformation in Europe
due to
Chernobyl.
About
5,000
further cases of infant mortality were registered Europe wide.
In the
highly contaminated regions, the number of first time afflictions of
children
has risen by a factor of thirteen.
Furthermore,
it was discovered that children of Liquidators and of persons living in
the
highly contaminated areas suffer from an alteration of the genetic
makeup, the consequences
of which for future generations can not be evaluated at this point.
These
are
very conservative estimates. The Russian Environmental Ministry states
that the
number of Chernobyl-induced cases of diseases amounted to 1,3 million
persons
before the beginning of the 1990s.
***
But in
spite
of these depressing figures: The IAEA and the WHO don’t see the cause
of the
dire health situation and the increase of diseases in radioactive
exposure but rather
in poverty, poor nutrition and the “bad lifestyle which is spreading
throughout
the former Soviet Union”. They further lament a “crippling fatalism” in
the
population.
***
Does
this also
pertain to infants? The neurosurgeons Orlov and Shaversky from Kiev
report a
series of 188 brain tumors in children under the age of three. This
represents
an increase by a factor of 5.8 since Chernobyl and can certainly not be
attributed to bad lifestyle or poor nutrition. Children which were
breast fed were
affected in particular. This study was ignored by the IAEA and WHO.
***
Just
as they
did with other, more up to date and unquestionable pieces of research.
The
IAEA/WHO study relies almost exclusively on studies from 1990 to 1998.
Newer,
more alarming studies were completely disregarded.
But
there is
further criticism of the IAEA/WHO study:
Several
hundred thousand people were simply overlooked: Merely 200,000 of the
600,000
to 860,000 of the liquidators were considered in the surveys.
In the
study,
non-cancer afflictions were left out of the computation base for the
fatality
figures.
Of the
9,000
cases of cancer deaths forecast in the study, the IAEA only mentioned
4,000 in
its abridged report. This means that 5,000 fatalities were simply left
out of the
report presented to the press and the public.
***
Very
problematic is the IAEA’s interpretation of the appearance of manifold
cases of
mental disorders in the affected population. According to the IAEA,
this did not
result from the reactor disaster but from the break-up of the Soviet
Union and
the subsequent mentality change in the region.
It’s
being ignored
that the reactor disaster of Chernobyl caused a forced migration of the
population.
This forced resettlement of whole villages left many of the affected
people
completely uprooted.
Whereas
older
people oftentimes stayed in their villages or returned there later,
almost all young
families with children left the region. The result was a negative
change in the
demographic structure: the birth rate continues to sink while the death
rate is
rising.
In
turn, the
absence of young people affects the social and economic development of
the
affected regions, which are now experiencing a lack of teachers,
physicians and
other specialists. These changes in the social structure of the
villages, which
were supposed to become new homes for the deplaced population often led
to
tensions between the new and the old inhabitants.
Additionally,
the feeling of insecurity about the potential consequences of the
accident for their
own health, and that of helplessness in face of the events have had a
negative
effect on the minds of the people in the affected regions. All these
must also be
counted as consequences of Chernobyl.
***
All of
the
above mentioned facts can only lead to one conclusion: The IAEA/WHO
data cannot
be right. But at the same time, it’s almost impossible to determine the
genuine
morbidity and mortality figures. Data which is vital for on the
understanding
of the health consequences are being kept secret. We don’t have access
to the
data of the cancer register of Belarus and the national Liquidator
registry.
Other data is missing completely. Also, there is data which is hard to
establish – like the radioactive contamination of the Liquidators.
In
addition,
there were considerable migrations from the affected regions to the
unaffected
ones which can only be partially reconstructed. Contaminated food was
distributed to clean areas and clean food was distributed to
contaminated
areas. Certain types of cancer and
genetic effects are expected to take years and even decades until they
become
apparent. Whoever claims to posess final answers on the case of
Chernobyl – as
the IAEA does in its press release – is lying.
***
But
what
drives the IAEA and the WHO to publish figures that cannot be right?
What leads
them to these interpretations? Keith Baverstock, former head of the
Radiation
and Health Section of the WHO states that the WHO does not have many
experts
on, nor much interest in radiological issues, so that the staff is
passed on to
the IAEA. According to its charter, the central objective of the IAEA
is: The
worldwide promotion of the peaceful use of nuclear technology. At the
same time
that it is playing down the consequences of Chernobyl, the IAEA is
floating a
campaign on the renaissance of nuclear energy. The aim is the
construction of
new nuclear reactors on all continents. The conflict of interest is
obvious.
This
lecture
actively resists being taken in by these arguments. The Chernobyl case
can not
and must not be closed. Chernobyl began to kill 20 years ago – and has
been
killing ever since - slowly and unobtrusively. It’s an accident without
an end.
Nobody knows exactly what burdens will befall the grandchildren and
great-grandchildren of the victims. A technology which has such
consequences is
irresponsible. Taking into account a
study of the
German Society for Reactor Security, the risk of a nuclear meltdown in
the EU
in the next 40 years lies at 16 percent.
Therfore, in
addition to supporting the people in the Chernobyl region, it is
important to
spread the information on the consequences of this accident.
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