India conducted its first nuclear tests in May 1998 and Pakistan followed suit immediately thereafter. India stores its nuclear weapons in components, but can deploy a small number of functional units within days. India has produced enough plutonium to manufacture between 50 and 90 nuclear weapons. They are based on short- to medium-range ballistic missiles and fighter-bomber aircrafts. Their range is up to 2,500 kilometers. The Indian nuclear program relies heavily on Russian expertise and components. According to the Indian Nuclear Doctrine from 1999, India abides by a no-first-use policy. The Indian strategy is to build up a sea-, air-, and land-based triad which would give a second strike capability. India has met technical problems developing submarine based missiles. Pakistan has the components to assemble a small number of nuclear weapons in a matter of hours or days and has enough weapons-grade uranium to produce between 30 and 50 nuclear weapons. The majority of Pakistan's nuclear weapons are land-based ballistic missiles, but there are also Pakistani fighter-bomber aircrafts fitted for carrying nuclear weapons. The range of the weapons are up to 2,000 km. So far, Pakistani weapons are based on highly enriched uranium, but they are developing the capacity to produce plutonium. Pakistan developed their nuclear weapons with the help of China and North Korea. The Pakistani nuclear command and control system is believed to be badly secured and therefore very prone to a terrorist attack or accidental launch.
The reasons for nuclearization can be deduced from the countries' policies. Important reasons for India's nuclear program are the need to balance China's growing nuclear arsenal and the ongoing conflict with Pakistan over Kashmir. Also, nuclearization is seen as essential for India to become a great power and have greater freedom of action in world politics. India is highly superior in conventional military resources. The major reason for Pakistan to have weapons is the need to balance their power with India's. Possession of nuclear weapons is seen as a way to seek a broad strategic equilibrium. For both states the nuclear weapons are a part of national identity and pride.
Many have said that the Kashmir conflict is the key to disarmament in the region. As long as Kashmir continues to be disputed, neither of the two countries will be willing to disarm their nuclear programs.
The conflict over the disputed region of Kashmir has been ongoing since independence from Britain in 1947. Three wars have been fought. Currently a boundary the Line of Control divides Kashmir in two, with one part administered by India and one by Pakistan. India would like to formalise this status quo and make it the accepted international boundary. But Pakistan and Kashmiri activists reject this plan because they both want greater control over the region. The UN Security Council has addressed the issue several times and many Security Council Resolutions exist that have not been followed. Pakistan is generally positive concerning UN involvement but India chooses to see the conflict as a bilateral issue. Pakistan admits supporting paramilitary groups politically and diplomatically while some others calls it state financed terrorism. It has been suggested that the reason for India's reluctance to give Kashmir independence is a fear that struggles for independence in other regions of India will follow, creating a situation that would be very similar to what happened in the Balkans in the early 90s. During late 2003 the relationship between Pakistan and India began to show some positive signs. Peace talks were held in 2004 and a cease fire was declared. A bus service across the Line of Control was restored in early 2005.
For several reasons, Pakistan is one of the key hot spots when discussing nuclear terrorism. The Pakistani nuclear arsenals are badly secured and therefore susceptible to theft or unauthorized launch. The former Taliban Regime in Afghanistan and Al Qaeda have many supporters in Pakistan and there is a genuine concern that nuclear arsenals of Pakistan could fall into the hands of fundamentalists if the Musharraf administration of Pakistan were to be overthrown. This could mean that the Pakistani nuclear weapons could fall under the control of groups willing to use them or to share them with terrorist groups. Pakistani scientists have admitted that they have shared nuclear know-how with Libya, Iran and North Korea.
The situation in South Asia is very different than the situation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, but the rhetoric in South Asia and the philosophy behind their nuclear policies are still based on Cold War thinking. Many examples exist of how deterrence philosophy cannot be applied to the region. Here is one: The flight time between India and Pakistan is much shorter than between the US and the Russia. The chance for one of the countries to respond to a nuclear attack from the enemy by launching their own missiles is therefore limited. The time left for qualified decision-making is almost non-existing, which increases the risk of accidental nuclear war considerably.
Experts from South Asia have pointed out that the nuclear programs in South Asia are straining the resources of both countries to such an extent that it necessitates strong national campaigns for nuclear supremacy. Ethnic and religious hatred is used to fuel the nuclear ambitions of the populations. The writer Arundhati Roy has used the expression "The Hindi Bomb" to describe India's nuclear ambitions because of the strong nationalistic feelings attached to India's identity as a nuclear power. In the short perspective, there should be more transparency in the nuclear doctrine and in the tests being carried out to avoid any accidental use of nuclear weapons. The USA and the USSR, both with nuclear capability, maintained a dialogue even when the tension was at its height. India and Pakistan must do the same. India's relation with China have improved, as have relations with Pakistan. However, much is yet left to wish for. Trust essential for disarmament. Neither India nor Pakistan have signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Key indicators of development:
Key indicators of development