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IPPNW
BAN Tour 2010
Biking against Nuclear Weapons
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August 14th - 24th 2010
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Infos: Nuclear Weapons
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Infos on Nuclear Weapons

Introduction

According to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the world is currently six minutes away fom a nuclear catastrophe. What may seem as an alarming concept to most people who do not view nuclear weapons as an immediate threat to their personal safety, is actually a relief to most peopl who are familiar with the status quo of the nuclear arms in the world - until this year, the scientists judged the world to be much closer to "midnight" - five minutes on their doomsday clock. This clock, which is meant to represent the current danger of nuclear weapons actually being used by one of the major nuclear weapon states has been on this status of high alert ever since 2007, when the devastating policies of the former US administration under George W. Bush regarding the development of new nuclear weapons met with the nuclear weapons test in North Korea, the redeployment of nuclear-weapons armed submarines on the high seas by Russia and the escalating conflict in the MIddle East, where Israel already posses nuclear capabilities and Iran is in the process of acquiring them. So what has led the Atomic Scientists to decrease their state of alert now in 2010? For one, the election of Barak Obama as new US president has certainly ushered in a new era of hope for serious nuclear disarmament talks to begin. Additionally, several European states have expressed their desire to have US nuclear missiles removed from their soil - Germany with its remaining nuclear weapons base in Büchel amongst them.

Jayantha Dhanapala, President of the Pugwash Movement of Scientists and Board member of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists stated that with more than 23.000 nuclear weapons still in deployment around the world, 8.000 of which are still in a state of high alert, the danger for a nuclear weapon actually being used are still very real. Muhamad Al Baradei, President of the International Atomic Energy Association and recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize for this stance on nuclear disarmement recently stated that the use of the nuclear weapon has not been as high as it is today ever since the end of the Cold War.

The arguments for comprehensive nuclear disarmament are easily summed up: apart from the danger of one of these weapons being launched by accident (a computer virus or a severe technical defects, human failure, a rogue general or a terrorist group hijacking a weapon, etc.) the unilateral use of a nuclear bomb as a means of waging war, for example in the Middle East, the Indian subcontinent or the Korean peninsula, there are the detrimental environmental effects of uranium mining, nuclear testing and of course the use of a nuclear weapon with the potential of a nuclear winter, and, last but not least, the extreme costs associated with nuclear weapons. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists calculate that approximately 90 billion dollars are currently being spent on nuclear weaons programmes. As a comparison: only about half of this figure would be needed to fulfill all Millenium Development goals until 2015.
 

Which countries have nuclear weapons?


Nine countries are currently considered to have nuclear capabilities: the so-called "official" nuclear weapon states are the five which have had these weapons at the time of the signing of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1968: the United States, Russia, China,
the United Kingdom and France. Then there are three countries which have openly declared themselves to be nuclearized and have tested their nuclear warheads: India, Pakistan and North Korea, although there is considerable debate as to the actual capabilities of their weapons, especially in the case of North Korea. Finally, there is Israel, which has developed nuclear weapons but has neve officially admitted to it, stating that Israel will not be the first country to "introduce" nuclear weapons in the Middle East. In addition to these nuclear weapon states, there are five countries with US nuclear weapons on their soil and trained fighter pilots who would deliver them under the principle of "nuclear sharing"- Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Turkey. All other countries are considered non-nuclear weapon states, which certain regions or whole continents like Australia, Africa or Latin America calling themselves Nuclear Weapon Free Zones (NWFZ). Beside the nuclear weapons states, terror networks like Al Quaida are also on the lookout for weapon grade plutonium - a mission that, according to security experts, they will most likely be able to accomplish sooner or later.


Source: Wikipedia


The numbers

If all nuclear warheads are counted: operational warheads, spares, those in both active and inactive storage, and intact warheads scheduled for dismantlement—the United States, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan and Israel together possess a total of more than 23 300 nuclear warheads. Nearly 8400 of these are currently deployed operational warheads (see table below). Nearly 2000 of these nuclear weapons are kept at astate of high operational alert.

Country Year of first nuclear test
Strategic warheads
Tactical warheads
Total deployed warheads
United States
1945
2,202
500
2,702b
Russia
1949
2,787
2,047
4,834c
United Kingdom
1952
180d
-
(180)
France
1960
300
-
(300)
China
1964
(240)
...e
(240)
India
1974
-
-
(70-90)f
Pakistan
1998
-
-
(60-80)f
Israel
-
-
-
(80-100)f
North Koreaa
2006
-
-
...
Total



(8,392)

() = uncertain figure
a North Korea conducted a nuclear test explosion in 2006 but there is no public information to verify that it has operational nuclear weapons
b The total US inventory is ca. 9,400 warheads, of which ca. 5,200 are in reserve or awaiting dismantlement.
c The total Russian inventory contains ca. 13,000 warheads, of which ca. 8,166 are in reserve or awaiting dismantlement.
d Some warheads on British strategic subariens have sub-strategic missions reviously convered by tactical weapons.
e The existence of operational Chinese non-strategic warheads is uncertain.
f The stockpiles of India, Pakistan and Israel are thought to be only artly deployed.

 


Nuclear Weapons in Europe

With the two German states reunited, Poland and other former Warsaw Pact countries having become NATO and EU-partners and the Iron Curtain which divided Europe and the world long gone, one would think that the strategic need for nuclear weapons in Europe would have dissipated. But twenty years after the end of the Cold War, Russian missiles are still aimed at North America and Western Europe, while NATO still has its weapons targeting Moscow or St. Petersburg. France and the UK have nuclear stockpiles of their own, while the US is maintaining six nuclear weapons bases in Europe. At its peak, the US nuclear arsenal in Europe consisted of 7300 warheads (1971). Today, there are still approximately 150-240 nuclear warheads stationed in Europe: 10-20 in Germany, 70-90 in Italy, 50-90 in Turkey, 10-20 in Belgium and 10-20 in The Netherlands. There were around 110 more bombs in Lakenheath, UK and about 130 more in Ramstein, Germany, which have been removed recently. The aircraft of these five non-nuclear weapon NATO countries are assigned to deliver a nuclear strike with the US weapons if so ordered. At its Nuclear Planning Group meeting on June 5th, 2007, NATO confirmed its commitment to deploying nuclear weapons in Europe to maintain the "minimum level sufficient to preserve peace and stability." This "nuclear sharing", which undermindes the principles of non-proliferation set out in the NPT is more than a mere anachronism. It is a moral and political failure of the countries involved. The old target coordinates have remained the same, with NATO manoeuvres still training the bombardment of Russian cities and vice versa. The non-strategic gravity B61 warheads which the US is maintaing in Europe have a maximum yield of 170 Kt. That's about 10 times the explosive capacity of a Hiroshima bomb. 60 years after the destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, we as doctors still need to convince politicians and the public that nuclear weapons have to be abolished.


Source: NTI


Nuclear Weapons in Germany

Until the 1990's, the United States had several secret tactical nuclear weapons bases stationd in West Germany in order to deter the Warsaw Pact countries from using their nuclear weapons against Western Europe or the US. A nuclear stand-off during the times of the cold war would have mainly been fought in Central Europe, with the two German states, the Benelux countries, Poland and Chechoslovakia sharing the high burden of a full-blown nuclear war. This reconstructed 1979 map of the Soviet bloc's vision of a seven-day atomic holocaust between Nato and Warsaw Pact forces was released by the Polish defence ministry in 2005.



Source: The Daily Telegraph

The map illustrates why the Germans would have an acute awareness of the dangers of nuclear weapons actually being used and why there was such a relatively strong public movement against nuclear deployments in Europe. After reunification, the US withdrew a vats amount of its armed forces from West Germany, including many of its mid-ranged nuclear missiles. Two air bases, however, were left with nuclear bombs: Büchel and Ramstein. In 2005, all B61 bombs were apparently withdrawn from Ramstein Air Force Base Germany, but there are still an approximate number of bombs kept in Büchel. While this may seem like a small number compared to the thousands of strategic und tactical weapons in deployment around the world, on submarines, stealth fighters and mobile launch pads within the US itself, it is a highly symbolic relict of the Cold War and of an era where mutual assured destrucion rather than peaceful negotiation was the modus vivendi of international politics. There have been calls for a removal of these last American nuclear bombs from German soil and from all of Europe, most recently in the coalition agreement of the otherwise very US-friendly christian-liberal government. It reads:

"We strongly support the proposals made by US President Obama regarding comprehensive new disarmament initiatives – including the goal of a world free of nuclear weapons. We do not consider disarmament and arms control to mean a loss of security, rather, they are a central element of a future global security architecture. We want to seize the chance to reverse the global trend towards rearmament and return to a period of substantial progress in the areas of disarmament and arms control. We are convinced that interim steps in the achieving a world free of nuclear weapons could mean significant gains in security.

We must prevent new nuclear powers from emerging, new arms races from being triggered, conventional arms being considered an alternative to renouncing nuclear potential and the technology needed for building weapons of mass destruction and fissile materials landing in the hands of terrorists. We are concerned about the erosion of international disarmament and arms control agreements. We are convinced that follow-up treaties to expired agreements must be negotiated and the nuclear test ban treaty or the amended Treaty on conventional armed forces in Europe ratified.

We are committed to supporting new disarmament and arms control agreements internationally. We want to use the review conference on the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty in 2010 to provide new impetus for contract-based regulations. In this context, as well as in the course of the drafting of a strategic concept for NATO, we will advocate within the Alliance and with our American allies the removal of the remaining nuclear weapons from Germany." (English translation of the 2009 coalition agreement between CDU, CSU and FDP)

On our bike tour through Germany, we will meet up with German politicians and remind them of these committments. Also, we plan to visit the Büchel Nuclear Airbase on our way down the Rhine. We will also distribute postcards addressed to the German foreign minister, which people can sign if they want nuclear weapons to be withdrawn from Germany.

Nuclear Weapons in France

As our tour will also be taking us through France, an official nuclear weapon state, we will also speak with French politicians about their nuclear inheritance. According to the SIPRI Yearbook 2009, France’s nuclear forces consist of four nuclear submarines carrying 240 nuclear warheads with a range of about 6000 km and a yield of about 400-600 kt each and 84 aircraft, carrying 60 warheads with a range of 650-2750 km and a yield of 300 kt each. (Source: SIPRI Yearbook 2009) In June of 2008, the French President Nicolas Sarkozy stated in a so-called White Paper on defence and national security that France will continue to rely on the "principle of strict suiciency" (corresponding to the "minimum deterrence" policy) as a guarantor of its security, and that the "operational credibility" of the deterrent relies on "permanent submarine patrols and air-borne capability". The White Paper states that France will continue to sustain its nuclear weapon complex, in particular the relevant research and development capabilities.



The physics:

There are two basic types of nuclear weapon. The first type is a normal nuclear bomb, atomic bomb, or simply A-bomb. It produces its explosive energy through nuclear fission, the splitting of an atomic nucleus. Most nuclear bombs consist of a core of Plutonium-239 and Uranium-235. Around this core is a mass of conventional TNT, whose explosion causes the sub-critical radioactive material in the core to be compressed and reach a supercritical mass. This in turn starts a nuclear chain reaction. While the number of nuclear fissions is low at first, they multiply exponentially and become uncontrollable as more and more radioactive atoms are split. The amount of energy released by fission bombs can range between one and 500,000 tons of TNT-equivalent.


The second basic type of nuclear weapon produces a large amount of its energy through nuclear fusion reactions. Such fusion weapons are generally referred to as thermonuclear bombs, hydrogen bombs or simply H-bombs. They rely on fusion reactions between isotopes of hydrogen: deuterium and tritum. Hydrogen bombs use the energy of a conventional fission bomb in order to compress and heat the Deuterium and Tritium, which can then fuse into Helium, a process that gives off a vast amount of energy in presure, heat and radiation - many million tons of TNT-equivalent can thus be let loose. 



Medical
effects of nuclear weapons:

The WHO describes nuclear weapons as the single most dangerous threat to world health, mainly due to their incredible detonating force (around 1,000,000,000 times the power of a regular bomb of equal size), their indiscriminate destruction of entire cities and the long term effects caused by radioactive pollution. They are usually designed to be dropped from airplanes or delivered by missiles. In order to maximize civilian casualties, they are exploded several hundred feet above ground level. So called suitcase bombs, “dirty bombs” (conventional explosives containing radioactive material) or power-plant bombs (causing a Chernobyl-like melt-down) would behave differently. Through constant development, the first 10-20 kiloton bombs that were dropped over Hiroshima and Nagasaki have long been outdated, with average bombs having ten to a hundred times more power. 

In general, there are three pathogenic factors:

  • The heat wave of up to 300,000 °C - hot enough for all paper within a 14 km radius to begin burning and all objects in the immediate drop site to evaporate

  • The pressure wave equalling 2,000,000 tons of TNT, causing destruction through its momentum and giant fire storms in its wake

  • Radiation, which can be divided into two categories: the acute radiation of a-, b-, g- and neutron radiation emitting from the exposive centre and lasting about one minute and the radioactive fallout, which continues to rain down with lethal doses for days after the blast. It usually takes a week for radiation levels to decrease below lethal doses in the affected areas.

The effects vary according to the distance from the drop site. The following figures represent the effects of a 10-15 kT bomb, such as the one used in Hiroshima. The effects of a modern nuclear weapon would most likely be ten to a hundred times as strong.

  • Ground Zero:

All life is annihilated in a matter of milliseconds.

  • 0-1,5 km

A large fireball is created through the burning atmospheric gases, which destroys all life and most structures within seconds. 100% mortality

  • 1,5-5 km

Buildings collapse due to the pressure wave and living creatures are burned alive, leaving only the ashes as a sort of „nuclear shadow“ which remains on roads or walls. The five kilometers are covered by the shock wave in abou 12 seconds. 100% mortality

  • 5-10 km

Third degree burns are the result of the extreme heat. The firestorm around the drop site draws all oxygen into its center, causing all living creatures in this zone to die of suffocation. 100% mortality. 

  • 10-20 km

Second to third degree burns lead to the deadly systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and flying rubble by the shock wave causes a mortality of 5-50% in this zone, depending on the level of construction. People in this zone receive a high dose of electromagnetic radiation.

  • Beyond 20 km

  Depending on wind direction, construction, the type of bomb and the weather, radiation and radioactive debris can spread far beyond the limits of the  
  city, causing the lethal radiatio sickness
(uncontrollable bleeding from skin and soft tissue, agranulocytosis and deadly infections.


The injuries of a nuclear attack would include tens of thousands of burns, particularly third degree burns. These would occur on top of thousands more second degree burns and crush injuries due to collapsed buildings, ruptured organs (particularly lungs), penetrating traumas (due to the objects that were turned into missiles), fractured skulls and compound fractures, deafness due to ruptured eardrums, blindness due to retinal burning and the effects of acute radiation disease: central nervous system dysfunction, gastrointestinal damage, uncontrolled internal bleeding, life-threatening infections and bleeding from gums or within the skin. Another factor leading to a rise in mortality is the destruction of vital infrastructure, hospitals and public life so that a lack of supplies, physicians and first aid causing tens of thousands of deaths that could otherwise be prevented. There are only about 1.500 "burn beds" in Western Europe - the incredible number of casualties involved in a nuclear explosion can simply not be dealt with by any state or health system, no matter how prepared.



Hiroshima after the bombing on August 6th, 1945



Nagasaki after the bombing on August 9th, 1945


The human costs:

Nuclear weapons kill three times:

  • Even without being used, nuclear weapons cause considerable harm. More than 2,400 nuclear tests have been carried out so far, with India and Pakistan being the last two countries to conduct underground testing in 1998. That's one test every nine days - for 50 years straight! The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) has been signed by 160 states and ratified by 93. In order to come into effect, the 44 states with nuclear technology have to ratify it. 11 of these still haven’t done so, amongst others the US and China. Three (India, North Korea and Pakistan) have not even signed the treaty. How many cases of cancer have these tests caused so far? According to scientific calculations, it could be as many as 430,000…
    Also, the extreme costs that go into the development, maintenance and security of nuclear arms has to be diverted from other parts of the national budget. Health expenditure, development aid, social welfare and true security loose out. The fact that poor states like India rather spend money on the development of nuclear arms than on the struggle against social injustice is appalling. The US have so far spent 5.5 trillion Dollars on their nuclear arsenal – not countin the expenses of development, research, production of weapons-grade plutonium, testing, maintenance and storage! As a comparison: The UN has calculated the costs of eradicating hunger, ensuring global health coverage, offering every human being access to drinkable water, combating illiteracy, switiching completely to regenerative energies, removing all landmines and relieving the developing countries of all foreign debt to about 260 billion dollars each year for a period of 10 years, which would still be half of the US-expenditure on nuclear arms!

  • The actual deaths through a nuclear attack occur due to heat, pressure, radiation and the destruction of infrastructure and could go into the millions if a modern bomb was to be dropped on a metropolis.

  • The long-term effects of a nuclear attack through radiation, destruction of infrastructure, consequent military conflicts and refugees have to be considered as well.


A blind boy who survived the nuclear blast


Who could use nuclear weapons?

  • Nuclear weapons states could…

see their government toppled by a coup d’etat, which would give the leader of this coup control over the country’s nuclear weapons (Pakistan?)

use their nuclear weapons in tactical maneuvers. The US is currently developing so called “bunker busters“ or “mini nukes”, which it intends to use in conventional combat. Other countries like France have openly threatened the use of nuclear weapons even against non-nuclear weapon states like Iran. 

fire a strategic missile if it sees no other option in a war (Israel, North Korea, India or Pakistan)

use „dirty munition“ containing depleted uranium. NATO and the US army have used this type of munition in the Gulf War and the Kosovo, leading to rising numbers of childhood leukemia cases as children play on the deserted battlefields and come into contact to the radioactive material.

  • Terrorists could …

buy or steal weapons-grade plutonium in Russia or Pakistan. Some tons of this raw material for nuclear weapons is reported missing since the end of the Cold War and is being sold on the black market

build their own nuclear weapons (the father of the Pakistani nulcear bomb has made millions selling his technology to North Korea, Iran and other states)

use a so called „dirty bomb“, a regular explosive device containing radioactive material (as if a regular nuclear bomb could be considered clean!

sabotage or attack a nuclear research facility, launch site or power plant, causing a melt-down

          Source: I. Helfand, L. Forrow & J. Tiwari: Nuclear Terrorism, BMJ, Vol 324, p. 356-358


There is a real danger of a nuclear exchange on the Indian subcontinent

The danger of an accidental launch:

False alarms of antiquated early warning systems dating back to the days of the Cuban missile crisis, computer viruses, hacker attacks or technical bugs could kick off a chain reaction leading to the inadvertent launch of nuclear weapons and a consequent rapid response from the other side. The American and the Russian president have exactly four to eight minutes in order to react to the dreaded notification of their security advisers that the other side has launched a nuclear attack on their country. Not enough time for a fair judgement or a rational reaction. Nuclear missiles need to be taken off of hair-trigger alert. This process of de-alerting alone could already prevent an accidental nuclear war. Why isn’t it being done?

All existing nuclear weapons are susceptible to accidents, not even counting mutinies on nuclear subs (as happened with some frequency on Russian subs in the nineties), theft or attack. Human error due to boredom, drug or alcohol abuse, stress or misinterpretation of data has already led to countless accidents within the army. How soon before something goes wrong with a nuclear sub or a launch site? According to a study by the US army, 41% of the personal discharged from the nuclear forces between 1975 and 1990 had alcohol or drug related problems and another 20% serious psychological disorders. In another study, the US airforce admitted that 73% of all plane accidents were due to human error.

Anecdotes form the world of nuclear weapons:

  • In January of 1995, the launch of a scientific satellite from Norwegian waters caused a nuclear crisis in the Kremlin. Although the US had followed standard operation procedures and had notified Russian authorities of the launch well in advance, this note seems to have gotten lost. The Russians, which spotte a US missile flying towards them called an emergency meeting of the national security council, opening the „nuclear football“ for the first time in history. 4 minutes before the deadline for releasing all Russian nuclear weapons pointed at NATO, the notification reached the Kremlin that the missile had stayed in orbit and was not aimed at Russian soil.

  • On January 17th of 1996 a US B-52 bomber carrying four nuclear missiles lost control during in-flight refuelling and crashed near the Spanish town of Palomares. Although the missiles didn’t explode, radioactive material was spread out over a huge area and had to be cleansed for a whopping 182 Million US Dollars.
  • During the Cuba Crisis in the beginning of the 60’s, a soldier shot at a presumed intruder in a US Airbase. This triggered an intruder alarm. Through a technical error, this intruder alarm was instead relayed as a nuclear alarm and only in the last minute were US generals in Washington able to stop the war planes, which had already begun to commence take off. The presumed intruder turned out to be a bear.
        Sources:
        Lloyd J. Dumas, Why Mistakes happen even when stakes are high, Medicine & Global Survival,
April 2001, Vol. 7, No. 1
        L. Forrow et. Al, Accidental Nuclear War, The New England Journal of Medicine, 1998, 338: 1326-1331
        Alan F. Phillips, 20 Mishaps That Might Have Started Accidental Nuclear War


Explosion of a thermonuclear bomb

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

When it was signed in 1968, the NPT was meant to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology and force the existing stockpiles to be abolished. The nuclear weapons states agreed to disarm, while the other signatories (all countries except India, Pakistan and Israel) agreed to refrain form developing nuclear weapons themselves. Except for North Korea and Iran, all non-nuclear states seem to be holding up their side of the bargain, while the nuclear weapons states are holding on to their arsenals and are ridiculing the treaty. The NPT is the only treaty containing a commitment to disarm and needs to be strengthened and not watered down, as the US delegation tried to do during the recent NPT-Review conference in May of 2005. 



Tadatoshi Akiba, Mayor of Hiroshima, holding a speech at the NPT-Review Conference


Looking ahead:

Dealerting“ describes the attempt to prevent accidental launches by removing weapons from the dangerous „hair-trigger alert“. This could be done by installing artificial barriers or storing missiles and war heads separately so that a few minutes are needed before launch. This would not go against the principal of mutual assured destruction (MAD), because the long transcontinental flight time would still ensure enough time for the other side to launch its missiles, thereby guaranteeing annihilation for both sides. Only accidental launches could be prevented through dealerting – still, just to contain this danger it would be worth it.

Existing treaties like the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) or the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) have to be enforced and not watered down. The NPT Review Conference in New York in 2005 showed that the US, North Korea and Iran do not think much of this treaty and would it rather see it fail. This posture of the US administration is an interesting paradox, since the US has to fear nuclear proliferation more than any other country. Current policy seems to be based more on ideological foundations than on rational strategic arguments. Listening to Pentagon generals in this matter would actually lead to a more adequate posture.

The concept of human security has to be redefined. Instead of thinking in terms like MAD, missile shields or other Cold War categories, we have to make the switch in public and international communication to mutual disarmament, even playing fields, sustainability and a sense of responsibility for the nuclear inheritance that we’re leaving to future generations.

Existing Organisations like the UN have to be strengthened in their mandate in order to work for peace on an international level instead of allowing unilateral policy from countries like India ,the US, China, Russia, Israel, North Korea, Iran or Pakistan govern world politics. Partnerships between states and NGOs already exist, such as the New Agenda Coalition (with members like Brazil, Sweden, South Africa and Ireland) that are working towards nuclear disarmament. At the same time organizations like Mayors for Peace are working against nuclear weapons on a local level – if their heads of state aren’t able to do it…

A public debate is needed. The critical mass that is necessary to convince our leaders of the importance to disarm has to be reached. What can you do? Inform yourself through the websites you find on the back of this flyer. Discuss this in your community and write your representatives. We, the world population, need to start a grass roots movement similar to the one that pushed through the abolition of landmines. Every person that joins us is a step towards a world free of nuclear weapons… The majority of the world population is on or side. Here are some opinion polls on nuclear weapons from 1997 to 1998:


Protesters at the 2005 NPT Review Conference forming a peace sign



More information can be found on the following websites:

  • An introduction to Nuclear Weapons on the Swedish IPPNW page: http://www.learnaboutnukes.org/
  • The very useful Website of the IPPNW International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons: http://www.icanw.org
  • Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: http://www.thebulletin.org/
  • The ultimate read: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Yearbook 2009: http://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2009/files/SIPRIYB0908.pdf

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